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| The value of plastic seals is far beyond people can imagine |
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Release time:2012-10-08 14:09/Source:admin/Reads:/Enquiry
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Since 2011 August, Dalian plastic seals ( L ) and New York crude oil prices continue to decline. We think, in 2012 the price will be repaired, plastic seals to underestimate the value of the state will improve, so the medium can be bought plastic seals left crude arbitrage.
Price is low.
From a cost perspective, whether it is LLDPE, just upstream of ethylene production, profits are down trend. According to the 895 U.S. dollars / ton ( CFR Japan ) and 882 dollars / ton ( FOB Singapore ) naphtha spot price calculation, cracking ethylene cash cost of US $1203 / ton: Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia 1203 dollars / ton; cash margin respectively - 103 dollars / ton with 123 dollars / ton. While the linear case is also at a loss of edge. On the whole, linear production without profit, to a certain extent blocked down the space; if the losses sustained, then recently reduced the likelihood of petrochemical plant will be bigger, then the LLDPE future supply or appear level sex is nervous, contribute to rising prices.
Crude oil, benefit from the United States economic data is improved and the unstable situation in the Middle East, oil price has recently shifted focus. But notable is, the Middle East more influences is the BRENT crude oil, and the effect of WTI Co.; American economy data better is more likely due to seasonal factors affect the price of oil, so it remains to be seen whether can continue. Therefore, we believe that crude oil term in 100 U.S. dollars to maintain the upper and lower shock probability too.
Plastic seals is expected to raise in crude oil shock interval
Whether from the price history statistical data or the fundamental point of view, all showed mid price to both greater potential for repair, buy even plastic cast S. crude oil operation feasible. But at the same time we also notice, since 2011 even plastic and beauty oil correlation decreased, so buy plastic seals left beautiful crude arbitrage is a risk, suggested that the investor position should not be too heavy, and set a good stop-loss.
According to our current tracking analysis, L1205 and NYMEX crude oil contract in 05 against 95-100 low interval, the future price to repair probability too. And the recent domestic futures market because during the NPC and CPPCC good news to boost, inner signs appear warmer; while crude oil after the first round sharply, temporary high shock pattern, resulting in a cross-species arbitrage space.
In view of the NYMEX standard crude oil contract object unit is too large ( trading unit 1000 barrels ), can use MINI contracts ( trading unit 500 barrels ) to operate. In accordance with the principle of equal value, even plastic seals and beauty oil operator number ratio of 25: 1, stop-loss point can be set for 15 dollar ( according to eliminate the effects of exchange rate parity ), the only surplus may be set against 18-20. At present both rate is about 16, if the price returns to 18, the yield of up to 50.9%. |
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